According to a Deutsche Bank survey of 400 people conducted between March 17 and 20, the probability of U.S. economic growth declining in the next 12 months is about 43%, raising more questions about the direction of the U.S. economy.
Even with the unemployment rate at a low level and most data showing that the U.S. economy continues to grow even if its pace is slowing, the survey results further confirm the message conveyed by various sentiment surveys that consumers and business leaders are increasingly worried about the growing risk of an economic slowdown or recession.
With the election just a few short months away and generative AI detection technologies hit-or-miss, experts say we can expect to see more generative AI-based content designed to sow discord among the electorate.
“Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged these concerns last week, but he also maintained that the U.S. economy's "overall performance is strong," characterized by "significant progress toward our goals over the past two years." However, the annualized growth rate of U.S. GDP this year is expected to be revised down to only 1.7%. DoubleLine Capital bond expert Jeffrey Gundlach is more pessimistic and believes that the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession is between 50% and 60%.
“Morgan Stanley pointed out in its latest report: "The recent decline in the stock market has been exacerbated by the 'uncertainty shock' brought about by changing trade policies, which investors worry may turn into a slowdown in inflation or even a recession. However, the real core of this problem is that the United States may face the risk of stagflation: economic growth slows and inflation remains high.
Generative AI is already easy to use and easily accessible
However, Ball expressed doubts about whether the stagflation situation of the past will return: "I don't think that the situation we are in now is likely to be comparable to that."
The Anderson Forecast Center at UCLA recently issued a "recession warning" for the economy, mainly due to concerns about President Trump's trade policies. Clement Bohr, an economist at the school, wrote that a U.S. recession could occur within a year or two, but said it was "totally avoidable" if Trump reduced the threat of trade policy.
